文章信息/Info

Title:

Study on the Stochastic Failure Probability Model of Carbon Steel Pipe System with Pitting Corrosion

文章編號:

1674-3962(2020)12-0962-06

作者:

趙樂新; 駱正山; 王曉敏

（西安建筑科技大學(xué)管理學(xué)院，陜西 西安 710055）

Author(s):

ZHAO Lexin;  LUO Zhengshan;  WANG Xiaomin

（School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China）

關(guān)鍵詞:

碳素鋼管; 點腐蝕; 失效概率; 隨機模型

Keywords:

carbon steel pipe;  pitting corrosion;  failure probability;  stochastic model

分類號:

TE988.2

DOI:

10.7502/j.issn.1674-3962.201907016

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:

A

摘要:

服役中碳素鋼管的失效對管道結(jié)構(gòu)安全造成影響，為了有效預(yù)測碳素鋼管系統(tǒng)的失效概率和剩余壽命，引入了隨時間變化的系統(tǒng)失效概率計算方法，以此為基礎(chǔ)判斷點腐蝕碳素鋼管是否需要進(jìn)行維修或更換。依據(jù)時變可靠性分析方法，結(jié)合首次穿越概率理論，在點腐蝕碳素鋼管剩余強度中引入隨機參數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，建立點腐蝕碳素鋼管隨機失效概率模型，對點腐蝕引起的失效概率進(jìn)行量化分析，為科學(xué)地確定碳素鋼管系統(tǒng)的失效時間提供了理論依據(jù)。結(jié)合實例分析，借助蒙特卡洛模擬方法驗證了所建模型的可行性，通過相關(guān)參數(shù)分析明確了影響點腐蝕碳素鋼管系統(tǒng)失效的關(guān)鍵因素。結(jié)果顯示，所構(gòu)建的模型可以合理預(yù)測點腐蝕碳素鋼管的失效概率，幫助管理者確定碳素鋼管系統(tǒng)實施維修和保養(yǎng)的最佳時間。

Abstract:

In order to effectively predict the failure probability and residual life of carbon steel pipe system with pitting corrosion, a method for calculating the failure probability of carbon steel pipe system varying with time is introduced. This method can be used to judge whether the carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion needs to be repaired or replaced. Based on the time-varying reliability analysis method and the first crossing probability theory, the stochastic failure probability model of carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion is established by introducing stochastic parameters into the residual strength calculation of carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion. The model quantifies the failure probability caused by pitting corrosion and provides a theoretical basis for determining the failure time of carbon steel pipe system scientifically. The feasibility of this model is verified by Monte Carlo simulation with an example, and the key factors affecting the failure of carbon steel pipe system with pitting corrosion are identified through the analysis of relevant parameters. The results show that the model can reasonably predict the failure probability of carbon steel pipes with pitting corrosion and help the managers to determine the best time for maintenance and repairment of carbon steel pipe systems.